Net price forecasting and launch optimisation for an IO asset on UK oncology indication expansion for top tier pharmaceutical

16 June 2021

The Situation

A large pharma company are developing an IO asset upon UK oncology seeking a range of indication expansions in the UK. They are currently approved for two lines of therapy for a single disease area. The company wanted to understand what would be the net price implications for seeking expansion to other indications to support their financial planning efforts. Net price forecasting within the UK is highly challenging due to the confidentiality around commercial discounts between manufacturers and the NHS.

The Methodology

Situation assessment & uncertainty profiling

Value vs QALY framework development to estimate QALY gains for Product X

Net price calculations for Product X using SoC net prices

Uncertainty profiling & inclusion into net price forecasting

The Solution

GPI applied its price forecasting methodology, to the cost effectiveness market and was able to derive the QALY estimates and thus the ICER to then calculate the net price of product X.

Taking uncertainty considerations into account, GPI was able to provide a base-case and worst-case forecasts, as well as surrounding strategy for supporting indication optimisation to ensure maximum asset revenue for this particular oncology asset.